Crude Oil, Gold, Copper & USD ETF Trading Seasonality
As we move into another district, it is always good when the seasonal aspects of the market to review in order to have an idea what (on average) usually happens. The hard assets (and those to the paper) accumulated quite a rally in the course of the year.
The top chart is the 17-year seasonal average for crude oil. And bottom right, we have the Light Crude Continuous Contract. As we can see, on average, to rule Crude ground in the middle of the end of February. If we look at the table, we see that during his low crude oil made at the beginning of the year, it remained in a consolidation phase until the end of February and then Bottomed. Concurrent with that below, we can see that the% R oscillator finally came out of the oversold and the MACD histogram began bars above the zero line to register. By early March, oil turned up, the 50-day moving Average was overcome, and the seasonal availability was low.
Next, we consider the seasonal and see that April is the next summit, but that the price is moving sideways just a bit lower until May, when one begins correction, and finally in July.
On the crude chart we can see that the Rally in fact PEAK there in April and May moves in sideways. But rather than continue lower in June and July, a counter rally SEASONAL developed and when do not the markets, what they want, a strong rally the crowd catches on the wrong side of the market (such as stocks this year).
However, we see that a sell-out in the July period actually happen … … .. if higher by one level. The point is, the seasonal draw still produced at a low in July and that was a decent sale be.
If we now go back to the seasonal, we see that a peak in the purchase price payable HERE. (The bottom of the table is the time, the above Yellow months CONTRACT months) we see that the most likely date is the development of crude oil to a correction in this time of year. We can see that the price is affected by this seasonal as crude was going sideways most of the month and seasonal is ready for a good pullback.
A normal pullback seen Crude would be in the range 47-54 later this winter. SOLANGE MACD histogram continues to increase and% R and RSI above 80 is moved above the 50 range can continue the rally. % R recently came from 80 and MACD is just above the zero-field. Combine that with the right RSI at 50 and indicate the opportunities of this market is about to move in the next two weeks to make one way or another.
Here is what to search. If Crude remains strong (weak U.S. dollars), rather than down here, would break the old highs Crude and start another leg, probably into November. I think it will have a lot to do, what does the dollar, but there are so many other wild cards (Iran) that the projections can be difficult. And I think the sideways movement suggests.
If crude oil hurdle before 77, odds are a seasonal lag to favor. On the other hand, if crude oil were below the 50-day average break, then the lows of September, then would the rate of seasonal itinerancy to favor.
Next up we look at the copper market when it so important to the global growth of the world is not a precious metal, it is good to keep an eye on him to keep them.
We can see the bottom through the seasonal table, that copper is also a candidate for a pullback in September in October range, so there is no end blip of the month to November and in December finally low.
The seasonal chart shows that as crude, copper is a high point in April and a pullback in the July period. Copper is much more pronounced, but the time frames are similar.
Like crude oil, copper peaked in April ran and sideways until May to June attracted a high, low and one in July. And just like crude oil, copper ran up into September, and has gone sideways. And just like crude oil was stronger than expected, it was copper. But everyone has the seasonal ebb and flow follows that its average over the years has introduced. Coppers technical picture also shows a% R read, that has just dropped out of the 80 series, and the MACD histogram is right at the zero line. For the first time in a while, RSI has fallen below 50, and has recently completed his way back set to 50.
It appears that copper was at a turning point and is set within the next few weeks to the direction. Above 310 and copper could even be higher once again heading fall before the correction begins. are among the 260 range and should be the correction in full bloom. We assume that both goods are follow each other.
Now we look at the gold seasonal work. First the gold chart, then the season.
Gold has the seasonal Pattern followed very closely this year. We can see that a large price peak occurred in mid-February at the right time, and that the end of March to April and a bounce Correction to May. LIKE crude oil and copper, the period from May to June was a much stronger seasonal upward bias, as is the average. We can by the chart that the gold market usually explode in September and then has a peak in early October and a significant correction in the November or December to see the time frame. The Price is usually cut off by December.
Unlike the other commodities, gold's technical condition still bullish mode … … .. although one can be Event that flashes RSI overbought. We would agree, but we think that% R is below 80 and MACD histogram bars must fall RISING stop first.
These commodities have followed pretty much even from a tidal position. Copper seems to have the toughest climb.
These markets are pretty much every others followed this year and the time has come when all seem to favor the seasonal trends downward. Not that they want, but the probability of a correction sometime between now and begin November. The more the raw materials are, the longer before the correction started. Oil and copper, have turned around and seem to be waiting Gold to complete the upward movement. Ok, another table.
Yes … … … it is the U.S. dollar.
We can To see that the year started right. The dollar is a strong seasonal high in March was right on its seasonal schedule. And that's when things. The stock market bottomed out, and Thus crude oil a few weeks earlier.
We see a CONTRA SEASONAL that began mid-April. Rather than collapse in higher-June the U.S. dollar. As already mentioned, this is usually what happens when one appears contra seasonal. The trend is not positioned as a strong player, because they are normally.
It's been pretty down since then for the U.S. dollar.
Conclusions:
If you already have difficulty understanding Market conduct time, these charts suggest to me that the analysis is already what we all know. ALL MARKETS contrary Funny Money. Can you imagine calling the U.S. Dollar Funny Money? That is what happened to it. Actually it's funny how money has become the situation is serious.
Look how long it stayed as% R oversold just can not come out of fashion bearish. If you say to yourself: Hey, this looks like an EKG of someone who died near you.
So during the U.S. dollars trend is clearly downward, it will be at least a dead cat bounce. Therefore, we should be expecting a 4-6 week reprise in the dollar as the seasonal chart. See that the first-October period appears in the dollar ended with that little bounce in October, for the probability that the correction in gold and goods, even in crude or copper may not arrive until the mid-November time frame.
Whenever the time frame is, we should see the dollar technical show% R from oversold condition, RSI begin to rise again (note the large discrepancy are still there, as RSI has a new low with price) and to consider MACD histogram the zero level and in higher bar. At this point in time, the gold, copper and crude oil market should begin their autumn-correction for a short time before the next stage begins after the dollar. Keep It will keep an eye on these subtle clues and when you see it you an indication that a short-term bounce is likely 4-6 weeks and a subsequent pullback in commodities nearby.
When to play the things that these products take a breather and then return to their proximity to the trend of the year.
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